Tea partiers in two camps: Palin vs. Paul

By: James Hohmann
Politico
Apr. 21, 2010

Tea party activists are divided roughly into two camps, according to a new POLITICO/TargetPoint poll: one that’s libertarian-minded and largely indifferent to hot-button values issues and another that’s culturally conservative and equally concerned about social and fiscal issues.

The survey, an exit poll conducted Thursday by Edison Research at the massive Tax Day protest on the National Mall, found that the attendees were largely hostile to President Barack Obama and the national Democratic Party — three-quarters believe the president “is pursuing a socialist agenda.”

Yet they aren’t enamored of the Republican Party as an alternative. Overall, three out of four tea party attendees said they were “scared about the direction” of the country and “want to send a message to both political parties.”

The results, however, suggest a distinct fault line that runs through the tea party activist base, characterized by two wings led by the politicians who ranked highest when respondents were asked who “best exemplifies the goals of the tea party movement” — former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), a former GOP presidential candidate.

Palin, who topped the list with 15 percent, speaks for the 43 percent of those polled expressing the distinctly conservative view that government does too much, while also saying that it needs to promote traditional values.

Paul’s thinking is reflected by an almost identical 42 percent who said government does too much but should not try to promote any particular set of values — the hallmarks of libertarians. He came in second to Palin with 12 percent.

When asked to choose from a list of candidates for president in 2012, Palin and Paul also finished one-two — with Palin at 15 percent and Paul at 14 percent.

In general, those who turned out for the April 15 event tended to be less culturally conservative than national Republicans.

Asked to rate their level of anger about 22 issues on a scale of one (not angry at all) to five (extremely angry), the issue that drew the most anger: the growing national debt. The least: courts granting same-sex couples the right to marry. Twenty-four percent said they’re “not at all” upset about gay marriage.

While 73 percent are extremely angry about government intrusion into personal lives, only 48 percent express the same sentiment about “the moral direction of the country.” For instance, only 50 percent of the tea partiers overall said they’re extremely angry about the number of abortions performed each year (16th of 22). That’s less than the proportion extremely angry about bailouts, earmarks and frivolous lawsuits.

“Literally, there’s more harm being done economically to this country than 100 A-bombs could accomplish,” said Dave Kidwell, a 44-year-old from the Detroit suburbs.

Specifically, 51 percent of tea party activists say “government should not promote any particular set of values,” while 46 percent said “government should promote traditional family values in our society.” Compare this to national Gallup Polls, which recently found 67 percent of self-identified Republicans think government should promote such values.

Paul performed best among those who don’t think government should promote any particular set of values, but Palin dominated among the family values set. Of Palin voters, 59 percent said they were either very or extremely angry about same-sex marriage. Among Paul voters, the number was 34 percent. Half of Palin’s tea party supporters attend weekly religious services; a quarter of Paul voters do.

Among the respondents, the two prominent figureheads polarize. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed said they would not even consider voting for Palin if she ran for president in 2012; 59 percent said the same thing of Paul.

Indeed, no clear leader is emerging to pick up tea party support in the 2012 presidential election. Not one of a dozen Republicans could get more than 50 percent of tea partiers to say that they would even consider supporting them in the contest.

When asked why they’d come to the protest, two protesters who responded to the survey invoked their grandchildren — but to make different points that reflected the competing ideological pressures within the movement. Palin fan Barbara Denton, a 63-year-old from Maryland’s Eastern Shore, said she has lots of free time to push her political agenda now that she’s retired.

“I don’t want to hand my grandchildren a country that’s going in this direction,” she said, holding a large American flag. “We are a Christian country, and we need to remain that way. In case (Obama) doesn’t realize it, 86 percent of the population in this country says they believe in God. They’re not Muslim, and they’re not atheists. And he needs to figure it out.”

Rodney Rice, a 60-year-old financial broker who drove down with his wife from upstate New York, just wants government out of his life.

“I’ve never liked having to ask permission to do anything,” the lifelong Republican said, with a National Rifle Association hat shading his eyes from the setting sun. “I stayed within the rules of the law, treated society right and the government’s intruding more and more and more. And I don’t want that to happen. I’ve got three grandchildren. I want to see them have the same opportunities that I have.”

The tea party rallies have uniquely defined the movement because there’s no official platform, national committee or spokesman. Previous polls surveyed self-identified tea partiers by phone, potentially overstating the size of the movement and grouping sympathizers with actual participants.

The POLITICO/TargetPoint poll, the first of its kind, takes a statistically valid snapshot of tea party sympathizers engaged enough to actually attend an event. Altogether, 457 randomly selected adult attendees were approached over a five-hour period during the April 15 event on the Mall and asked to complete the self-administered, anonymous questionnaire. The response rate was 58 percent, and the sampling error is 5 percentage points, either way.

[TargetPoint Consulting is a market research and knowledge management firm that works with Republican and corporate clients. Edison Research has been the sole provider of Election Day exit poll information to major news organizations since 2003.]

For all their differences, these activists share much. They’ve traditionally supported Republicans: 70 percent backed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008; just 12 percent voted for Obama.

The majority agrees that neither major party can be trusted to fix government. On a generic congressional ballot pitting a Republican and Democrat against the “Tea Party,” 27 percent backed the unnamed tea party candidate and 25 percent supported the Republican. Twenty-seven percent said they don’t know how they’d vote.

The tea party activists on the Mall last week were better educated, more affluent and whiter than the country as a whole. One-third of the activists surveyed came from the Washington metropolitan area. Attendees were 64 percent male and 36 percent female. While 45-to-64-year-olds make up 26 percent of the population, they accounted for 49 percent of this crowd.

A third of those surveyed earned more than $100,000 in household income during 2009, and 62 percent came from households that earned at least $60,000. About three in 10 surveyed identified themselves as small-business owners.

Antipathy toward Democrats runs deep: 76 percent said the Democratic Party represents the views of the movement “not at all well.” Only 11 percent said they’d consider voting for Obama in 2012, and only 6 percent said they’d vote for a Democrat on the generic congressional ballot.

© 2010 Capitol News Company, LLC